2012 Toy Movie Scene – Will it Differ from 2011?

The original Phantom Menace was released in 1999 with an astonishing box office receipt worldwide of $923 million. The most recent Star Wars movie was Clone Wars, released 8/15/2009, which was an unmitigated disaster with a worldwide box office of $68 million. The rerun of Phantom Menace is expected to do better because, for one, it is a better movie. The fact that it is a rerun could work in its favor in that it will be of interest to the generation that saw the movie thirteen years ago and the current pre-teens who see it for the first time. 63% of Rotten Tomatoes users rated this movie with 3.5 stars [out of a possible 5]. Hasbro is the toy master licensee and their worldwide sales of their Star Wars toys in 2012 are estimated at $250 million

This movie continues on from the 2011 releases of Thor, Captain America and Iron Man. All three super humans are recruited by The S.H.I.E.L.D. agency to help save the Earth from annihilation by extraterrestrial invaders. RTT News said in October that “when all is said and done, "The Avengers" might be the only other movie that could challenge "The Dark Knight Rises" and "The Hobbit" to be the top commercial hit of 2012.” 98% of Rotten Tomatoes users said that they wanted to see this movie. Hasbro is the toy master licensee and their worldwide sales of the Avengers toys are expected to clock in around $150 million.

This movie is adapted from the Hasbro board game of the same name. The story line is that a fleet of ships is forced to do battle with an armada of unknown origins in order to discover and thwart their destructive goals. One of my Hollywood friends – whose business it is to assess commercial viability of movies – had a few problems with this one. Firstly, the movie has, in his opinion, absolutely no relationship with the board game. Secondly, he gave it thumbs down in regard to its quality. As Movie Moron put it, “The knives have been out for Battleship pretty much from day one, with the fundamental objection being that while the source board game might be an acceptable way to pass a rainy afternoon, it is threadbare material from which to fashion a movie”. Nevertheless, 83% of Rotten Tomatoes users said that they wanted to see this movie. Hasbro has the toy master license and any projection of 2012 toy sales is problematic. I would be inclined to put it down for $50 million in toys sales. As one national toy buyer put it – “I will take in whatever Hasbro puts out for it but I do not think the movie will make any great waves in my games department”. There could of course be a case of reverse engineering – instead of the movie taking its cues from the game, Hasbro might have decided to produce a totally new game based on the movie.

The Spiderman series is one of the most successful movies from a commercial point of view. The most recent version, “Spiderman 3,” had a box office of $890 million in 2007 and grossed $300 million in toy sales. People who have seen trailers tell me that it is much darker and more brooding than its predecessors. This might well limit the movie’s commercial appeal. However, 94% of Rotten Tomatoes said that they wanted to see this movie. Hasbro is the master toy licensee and is expected to show sales in 2012 in the neighborhood of $300 million.

The first movie in the series – Rise of Cobra – was released on 8/17/2009 and it was somewhat of a disappointment both in terms of box office and of commercial sales. As for the former, it was generally considered a second-tier movie and IGN said that, “In fact, there is something rather admirable in Sommers' attempt to neither pander to his audience nor unnecessarily class-up the source material. The good guys are good guys; the bad guys are bad. The schemes are ridiculous and the characters are broad.” The movie also had the bad fortune of being totally overshadowed by a truly great boy-focused film – Harry Potter’s Half-Blood Prince – which was released about two weeks later. The general take by the movie gurus is that Retaliation is an improvement over the Cobra and hence should do better. 95% of Rotten Tomatoes users said that they wanted to see this movie. However, just like first time around, the movie is going to be overshadowed by a cinematic heavyweight – Batman, the Dark Knight rises – three weeks later. Hasbro is the master toy licensee and their sales next year are expected to clock in on the $100 million level.

The most recent in the series – The Dark Knight, released on 7/18/2008 – was one of the few Billion Dollar movies - $1.001 million. The next installment – The Dark Knight rises – is expected to top this number particularly since the movie will have a clear run until December when The Hobbit of the Lords of the Rings is released. One of the national buyers at a very large retailer who had seen the trailers and the toy prototypes thought that the movie was likely to be the single largest toy sales generator next year. 98% of Rotten Tomatoes users said that they wanted to see this movie. Mattel is the master toy licensee and their sales this year are expected to be well north of $400 million.

The last film in the series – Lord of the Rings, Return of the King, released on 12/17/2003 – was a smashing success with a worldwide box office result of $1. 159 million. The master licensee then was now-defunct Toy Biz of Marvel. The 2012 movie has already been widely praised for its cinematic content. This is what CinemaBlend’s Eric Eisenberg had to say: “Though the preview didn't feature any epic battles or hordes of Orcs, what it lacked in action it more than made up for with beauty and an insane amount of nostalgia," he wrote. "Every shot in the trailer is breathtaking, from Bilbo Baggins wandering through the Shire to Gandalf in a fight against a mysterious creature. Everything about it is stunning.” 93% of Rotten Tomatoes users said that they wanted to see this movie. This time around, the toy master licensee is The Bridge Direct Inc., a company founded in 2009 and owned between Jay Foreman of Play Along fame and Oakhill Capital. The Bridge Direct already made its mark with Zhu Zhu Pets and Justin Bieber, and could become a major player in the action figure field with the Hobbit. The buyers I asked thought that the property could well exceed $400 million in shipments.

The original movie was released on 11/15/1991 and had, for its time, a phenomenal box office result worldwide of $377 million. The rerun addresses a totally new generation of girls and might also attract a number of the 1991 audience. 92% of approved Rotten Tomatoes critics gave this movie thumbs up. I would expect it to do well. Mattel is the toy master licensee for the movie and I would rate the potential at about $150 million in worldwide toy sales.

Brave is a 3-D computer animated sci-fi movie by Pixar. Its main protagonist is a girl, Merida, who is an expert archer and who, by contravening old customs, is forced to battle a spell that threatens her world. 92% of Rotten Tomatoes users said that they wanted to see this movie. Mattel is the toy master licensee and I would rate the potential worldwide toy sales in the neighborhood of $100 million.

The last Madagascar – Escape to Africa – was released on 11/7/2008 and racked up a very respectable box office of $603 million worldwide. The master license was then apparently held by Hooga Loo LLC. This has changed over to Mattel as the toy master licensee. The movie is expected to do very well – 93% of the readership of Rotten Tomatoes want to see the movie. However, in terms of toy sales, preschool movies do not typically generate the same volume as films directed at older kids – e.g. the Transformers of this world. I would hence expect a toy sales volume worldwide well below $100 million.

The most recent Ice Age movie was Dawn of the Dinosaur, which hit the screens on 7/1/2009. It had a very acceptable box office result worldwide of $886 million and toy sales between $60 and $70 million. Mattel was then the toy master licensee as they are this time around. 91% of the Rotten Tomatoes users want to see it. Again here we have a preschool movie that is unlikely to generate high toy sales and my estimate is in line with last time around – between $60 million and $80 million

Here again we have a 3-D rerun of a movie first released on 5/30/2003. Its box office worldwide was $867 million and its toy sales by Mattel, the then master toy licensee, estimated at $50 million. I assume that Mattel is also the toy licensee for the rerun. 91% of Rotten Tomato users said that they wanted to see the 3-D version. I expect sales to be approximately on par with those of the first version