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Tools:
Harry Potter Movies Will Lead in ToysPredictions Place Comic Book Heroes Close Behind
 January 13, 2009 — Most of the very successful toys in 2008 were driven by movies — “Star Wars: The Clone Wars,” “The Dark Knight,” Wall-E” and “Iron Man” – and it hence behooves us to look at what films are awaiting us this year and next.
I asked my buyer friends to rate the toy potential of the movies coming down the pike, on a scale from 1 to 10. This is what they came up with:
| Title |
Toy Potential |
Release Date |
Developer |
Likely licensee(s):
1st in US; 2nd international |
| The Pink Panther 2 |
4 |
2/6/2009 |
MGM |
Sanrio |
| Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience |
4 |
2/27/2009 |
Disney |
Jakks Pacific |
| Watchmen |
7 |
3/6/2009 |
Warner Bros. |
DC Direct |
| Monsters vs. Aliens |
8 |
3/27/2009 |
DreamWorks |
Toy Quest |
| The Wolf Man |
7 |
4/3/2009 |
Universal Pictures |
open |
| Race to Witch Mountain |
2 |
4/9/2009 |
Disney |
Mattel |
| X-Men Origins: Wolverine |
6 |
5/1/2009 |
Marvel |
Hasbro |
| The Chronicles of Narnia – The Voyage of the Dawn Treader |
5 |
5/1/2009 |
Disney |
Jakks Pacific |
| Hannah Montana: The Movie |
7 |
5/5/2009 |
Disney |
Jakks Pacific/Mattel |
| Star Trek |
8 |
5/8/2009 |
Viacom |
Playmates/Corgi |
| Terminator: Salvation |
8 |
5/22/2009 |
Warner Bros. |
Playmates |
| UP |
5 |
6/12/2009 |
Disney |
Playmates |
| Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen |
9 |
6/26/2009 |
Hasbro |
Hasbro |
| Ice Age 3: Dawn of the Dinosaurs |
8 |
7/1/2009 |
20th Century Fox |
Mattel |
| Astro Boy |
3 |
7/1/2009 |
Imagi Animation |
WowWee |
| Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince |
10 |
7/7/2009 |
Warner Bros. |
NECA (int'l)/Corgi (Europe) |
| Land of the Lost |
5 |
7/17/2009 |
Universal Pictures |
Jakks Pacific |
| G-Force 5 |
5 |
7/24/2009 |
Disney |
Jakks Pacific |
| He-Man: Masters of the Universe |
8 |
8/1/2009 |
Warner Bros. |
Mattel |
| G.I. Joe: Rise of Cobra |
9 |
8/7/2009 |
Hasbro |
Hasbro |
| Where the Wild Things Are 2 |
7 |
9/9/2009 |
Warner Bros. |
McFarlane Toys |
| Avatar 8 |
8 |
12/17/2009 |
20th Century Fox |
Mattel |
| The Princess and the Frog |
5 |
12/25/2009 |
Disney |
Mattel |
| Toy Story 3 |
9 |
1/8/2010 |
Disney |
Mattel |
| Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles |
8 |
3/4/2010 |
Imagi Animation |
Playmates |
| Alice in Wonderland |
3 |
3/19/2010 |
Disney |
Mattel |
| Alvin and the Chipmunks 2 |
5 |
3/19/2010 |
20th Century Fox |
Mattel |
| Iron Man 2 |
8 |
4/30/2010 |
Marvel |
Hasbro |
| Spider-Man 4 |
10 |
5/1/2010 |
Marvel |
Hasbro |
| Shrek Goes Fourth |
7 |
5/21/2010 |
DreamWorks |
McFarlane Toys |
| Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time |
5 |
5/28/2010 |
Disney |
Jakks Pacific |
| Thor |
6 |
6/4/2010 |
Marvel |
Hasbro |
| Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 |
10 |
11/1/2010 |
Warner Bros. |
NECA (int'l)/Corgi (Europe)
|
| Rapunzel |
6 |
12/25/2010 |
Disney |
Mattel |
 For both 2009 and 2010, the buyers rated the Harry Potter entries as the top movies in terms of toy potential.
In order to validate their judgment, I looked at blog metrics denoting consumer interest, comparing the three top-rated movies for 2009. These metrics confirm the ratings:
I also consulted Times Online (the online version of the venerable “Times” of London) ] in regard to their projections for the 50 biggest blockbusters in 2009.
This is how they rated some of the movies given above:
Times
Rank* |
Movie |
Buyer Weight** |
| 1 |
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince |
10 |
| 3 |
Star Trek |
8 |
| 4 |
Watchmen |
7 |
| 5 |
X-Men Origins: Wolverine |
6 |
| 7 |
Avatar |
8 |
| 8 |
Monsters vs. Aliens |
8 |
| 9 |
Terminator: Salvation |
8 |
| 13 |
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen |
9 |
| 22 |
Ice Age 3: Dawn of the Dinosaurs |
8 |
| 25 |
Hannah Montana: The Movie |
7 |
| 30 |
The Wolf Man |
7 |
| 35 |
G.I. Joe: Rise of Cobra |
9 |
* 1 is best
** 10 is best
The buyers and the “Times” seem to agree in principle on which movies will be the most influential this year.
 Writer's Bio: Lutz Muller is a Swiss who has lived on five continents. In the United States, he was the CEO for four manufacturing companies, including two in the toy industry. Since 2002, he has provided competitive intelligence on the toy and video game market to manufacturers and financial institutions coast-to-coast. He gets his information from his retailer panel, from big-box buyers and his many friends in the industry. If anything happens, he is usually the first to know. Read more on his website at www.klosterstrading.com. Read more articles by this author
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