Gamers to Buy Software First, Consoles Second

Nintendo May Need Console-ation in ‘08

By Lutz Muller
January 2008

Buyers at the large video game retail chains recently predicted that although consoles drove software sales in 2007, the converse will occur in 2008 as soon as supply of the Nintendo Wii catches up with demand. This year, instead of buying the video game console first and then looking for games, consumers will buy consoles to operate the games they most want.

At this point, blog metrics demonstrate that Wii is still reigning supreme. However, Sony’s PS3, written off as a failure a year ago, is beginning to show strength. This statement is confirmed by the buyers.

What games will consumers look for? This list projects the buyers’ guesses for the top-20, best-selling video games of 2008:

Rank	Name of Game	Consoles	Publisher	Release Date
1	Grand Theft Auto IV	360, PS3	Take Two	04/11/2008
2	Halo Wars	360	Microsoft	07/01/2008
3	Spore	PC	Electronic Arts	05/01/2008
4	Saints Row 2	360, PS3	THQ	12/31/2008
5	Metal Gear Solid	PS3	Konami	06/17/2008
6	Gran Turismo 5 Prologue	PS3	Sony	03/10/2008
7	Smash Bros Brawl	Wii	Nintendo	02/10/2008
8	Fall Out 3	PS3	Bethesda/Activision	09/09/2008
9	Starwars: Force Unleashed	360	Lucas Arts	04/08/2008
10	World of WarCraft, Wrath of the Lich King	PC	Blizzard/ Activision	09/09/2008
11	Final Fantasy XIII	PS3	Square Enix	12/01/2008
12	Splinter Cell Conviction	360	Ubisoft	06/03/2008
13	The Club	360, PC	Sega	02/19/2008
14	Alan Wake	360	Remedy	12/31/2008
15	Ghostbusters	PS3, Wii, 360, PC PS2, DS	Sierra/ Activision	10/07/2008
16	Battlefield Bad Company	360, PS3	Electronic Arts	03/24/2008
17	Army of Two	360, PS3	Electronic Arts	03/04/2008
18	Kill Zone	PS3	Sony	04/07/2008
19	Devil May Cry	360, PS3	Capcom	02/05/2008
20	Starcraft II	PC	Blizzard/Activision	10/01/2008

Based on this chart, the PS3 and Microsoft’s Xbox 360 are pretty much tied, with the Wii a very distant third.

Not only is the Wii behind, but Nintendo’s slated software production is considerably low. Of 66 games coming out this year designed for play on the Wii, only four are supplied by Nintendo. And for the DS, only four of 84 games to be released are produced by Nintendo.

Without a major new hardware release, very few top games driving Wii or DS sales, and virtually no software releases of their own this year, I cannot see Nintendo repeating its stellar 2007 performance.