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Where Will Wii Be?Xbox and PS3 Battle With New Releases
In January I published several buyers’ best guesses as to the most promising video games for the year. In the last column of the chart below are updates of what has happened since. In addition to three delays in release dates, you’ll notice that “The Club” by Sega, which buyers predicted to be the 13th-best-selling game of 2008, did not come in among the top 10 in February. Capcom’s “Devil May Cry” was ranked to become the 19th-best-selling game of the year, but highly surpassed those expectations in February, coming in at No. 2 in the United States and No. 1 in the UK.
| Rank |
Name of Game |
Consoles |
Publisher |
Release Date |
Comments |
| 1 |
Grand Theft Auto IV |
360, PS3 |
Take-Two |
04/11/2008 |
|
| 2 |
Halo Wars |
360 |
Microsoft |
07/01/2008 |
|
| 3 |
Spore |
PC |
Electronic Arts |
05/01/2008 |
|
| 4 |
Saints Row |
360, PS3 |
THQ |
12/31/2008 |
|
| 5 |
Metal Gear Solid |
PS3 |
Konami |
06/17/2008 |
|
| 6 |
Gran Turismo 5 Prologue |
PS3 |
Sony |
03/10/2008 |
Delayed to 12/4/08 |
| 7 |
Smash Bros Brawl |
Wii |
Nintendo |
02/10/2008 |
Released: 3/9/08 |
| 8 |
Fall Out 3 |
PS3 |
Bethesda/Activision |
09/09/2008 |
|
| 9 |
Star Wars: The Force Unleashed |
360 |
Lucas Arts |
04/08/2008 |
|
| 10 |
World of WarCraft: Wrath
of the Lich King |
PC |
Blizzard/ Activision |
09/09/2008 |
|
| 11 |
Final Fantasy XIII |
PS3 |
Square Enix |
12/01/2008 |
|
| 12 |
Splinter Cell Conviction |
360 |
Ubisoft |
06/03/2008 |
|
| 13 |
The Club |
360, PC |
Sega |
02/19/2008 |
Not among top 10 in February |
| 14 |
Alan Wake |
360 |
Remedy |
12/31/2008 |
|
| 15 |
Ghostbusters |
PS3, Wii,
360, PC
PS2, DS |
Sierra/Activision |
10/07/2008 |
|
| 16 |
Battlefield: Bad Company |
360, PS3 |
Electronic Arts |
03/24/2008 |
Delayed to 6/3/08 |
| 17 |
Army of Two |
360, PS3 |
Electronic Arts |
03/04/2008 |
|
| 18 |
Kill Zone |
PS3 |
Sony |
04/07/2008 |
|
| 19 |
Devil May Cry |
360, PS3 |
Capcom |
02/05/2008 |
No. 1 in UK and
No. 2 in US in February* |
| 20 |
StarCraft II |
PC |
Blizzard/ Activision |
10/01/2008 |
|
* as per retailer panel
It is too early to draw any conclusions for March releases “Super Smash Bros Brawl” by Nintendo and “Army of Two” by Electronic Arts except to say that both are performing very well. “Super Smash” is actually on par with the first days of “Guitar Hero III” by Activision. Additionally, first numbers for “God of War: Chains of Olympus” (which came up from nowhere) by Sony for PSP suggest that the game is performing way above expectations. GameStop shop-floor kids think it is probably going to be the best handheld game of the year.
In terms of company performance, preliminary numbers provided by the buyers suggest that Sony’s PS3 is starting to do well and that Nintendo’s Wii is tailing off, as I predicted. Additionally, Microsoft’s Xbox 360 saw more sales in the beginning of 2007. According to the NPD Group, unit sales for the first two months in 2008 compared to 2007 are as follows:
These comparisons are also demonstrated in the web traffic for Sony, Nintendo and Electronic Arts:
However, blog intensity metrics suggest that the interest level in all three systems peaked just before Christmas, then took a nosedive and is now on the uptrend again. The PS3 has held steady with a marked upturn in March.
 Writer's Bio: Lutz Muller is a Swiss who has lived on five continents. In the United States, he was the CEO for four manufacturing companies, including two in the toy industry. Since 2002, he has provided competitive intelligence on the toy and video game market to manufacturers and financial institutions coast-to-coast. He gets his information from his retailer panel, from big-box buyers and his many friends in the industry. If anything happens, he is usually the first to know. Read more on his website at www.klosterstrading.com. Read more articles by this author
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